On the role of governmental action and individual reaction on COVID-19 dynamics in South Africa: A mathematical modelling study.
Identifieur interne : 001462 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 001461; suivant : 001463On the role of governmental action and individual reaction on COVID-19 dynamics in South Africa: A mathematical modelling study.
Auteurs : Steady Mushayabasa [Zimbabwe] ; Ethel T. Ngarakana-Gwasira [Zimbabwe] ; Josiah Mushanyu [Zimbabwe]Source :
- Informatics in medicine unlocked [ 2352-9148 ] ; 2020.
Abstract
Mathematical models proffer a rational basis to epidemiologists and policy makers on how, where and when to control an infectious disease. Through mathematical models one can explore and provide solutions to phenomena which are difficult to measure in the field. In this paper, a mathematical model has been used to explore the role of government and individuals reaction to the recent outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The proposed framework incorporates all the relevant biological factors as well as the effects of individual behavioral reaction and government action such as travel restrictions, social distancing, hospitalization, quarantine and hygiene measures. Understanding the dynamics of this highly contagious SARS-CoV-2, which at present does not have any therapy assist the policy makers on evaluating the effectiveness of the control measures currently being implemented. Moreover, policy makers can have insights on short-and-long term dynamics of the disease. The proposed conceptual framework was combined with data on cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in South Africa, March 2020 to early May 2020. Overall, our work demonstrated optimal conditions necessary for the infection to die out as well as persist.
DOI: 10.1016/j.imu.2020.100387
PubMed: 32835076
PubMed Central: PMC7335420
Affiliations:
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Box MP 167, Harare, Zimbabwe.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Zimbabwe</country><wicri:regionArea>University of Zimbabwe, Department of Mathematics, P.O. Box MP 167, Harare</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Harare</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ngarakana Gwasira, Ethel T" sort="Ngarakana Gwasira, Ethel T" uniqKey="Ngarakana Gwasira E" first="Ethel T" last="Ngarakana-Gwasira">Ethel T. Ngarakana-Gwasira</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>University of Zimbabwe, Department of Mathematics, P.O. Box MP 167, Harare, Zimbabwe.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Zimbabwe</country><wicri:regionArea>University of Zimbabwe, Department of Mathematics, P.O. 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Box MP 167, Harare</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Harare</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Informatics in medicine unlocked</title><idno type="ISSN">2352-9148</idno><imprint><date when="2020" type="published">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Mathematical models proffer a rational basis to epidemiologists and policy makers on how, where and when to control an infectious disease. Through mathematical models one can explore and provide solutions to phenomena which are difficult to measure in the field. In this paper, a mathematical model has been used to explore the role of government and individuals reaction to the recent outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The proposed framework incorporates all the relevant biological factors as well as the effects of individual behavioral reaction and government action such as travel restrictions, social distancing, hospitalization, quarantine and hygiene measures. Understanding the dynamics of this highly contagious SARS-CoV-2, which at present does not have any therapy assist the policy makers on evaluating the effectiveness of the control measures currently being implemented. Moreover, policy makers can have insights on short-and-long term dynamics of the disease. The proposed conceptual framework was combined with data on cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in South Africa, March 2020 to early May 2020. Overall, our work demonstrated optimal conditions necessary for the infection to die out as well as persist.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="PubMed-not-MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">32835076</PMID><DateRevised><Year>2020</Year><Month>09</Month><Day>28</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print-Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Print">2352-9148</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Print"><Volume>20</Volume><PubDate><Year>2020</Year></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>Informatics in medicine unlocked</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Inform Med Unlocked</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>On the role of governmental action and individual reaction on COVID-19 dynamics in South Africa: A mathematical modelling study.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>100387</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1016/j.imu.2020.100387</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText>Mathematical models proffer a rational basis to epidemiologists and policy makers on how, where and when to control an infectious disease. Through mathematical models one can explore and provide solutions to phenomena which are difficult to measure in the field. In this paper, a mathematical model has been used to explore the role of government and individuals reaction to the recent outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The proposed framework incorporates all the relevant biological factors as well as the effects of individual behavioral reaction and government action such as travel restrictions, social distancing, hospitalization, quarantine and hygiene measures. Understanding the dynamics of this highly contagious SARS-CoV-2, which at present does not have any therapy assist the policy makers on evaluating the effectiveness of the control measures currently being implemented. Moreover, policy makers can have insights on short-and-long term dynamics of the disease. The proposed conceptual framework was combined with data on cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in South Africa, March 2020 to early May 2020. Overall, our work demonstrated optimal conditions necessary for the infection to die out as well as persist.</AbstractText><CopyrightInformation>© 2020 The Authors.</CopyrightInformation></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Mushayabasa</LastName><ForeName>Steady</ForeName><Initials>S</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>University of Zimbabwe, Department of Mathematics, P.O. Box MP 167, Harare, Zimbabwe.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Ngarakana-Gwasira</LastName><ForeName>Ethel T</ForeName><Initials>ET</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>University of Zimbabwe, Department of Mathematics, P.O. Box MP 167, Harare, Zimbabwe.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Mushanyu</LastName><ForeName>Josiah</ForeName><Initials>J</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>University of Zimbabwe, Department of Mathematics, P.O. 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